After reaching a new all-time high, Bitcoin enters a slight stabilization phase. Discover our comprehensive technical analysis and the scenarios to watch for BTC.
In Brief
- Technical analysis: Bitcoin remains supported around $109,600, with rising volumes and a confirmed bullish bias across all timeframes.
- Technical levels: Bitcoin consolidates below resistance, near major technical levels, with a bullish bias maintained above the former ATH.
- Market sentiment: Euphoric market sentiment with sustained institutional inflows via ETFs, confirming risk appetite.
- Derivatives analysis: Derivatives reflect a balanced market, with increasing open interest and a slight bullish bias in funding.
- Forecasts: The bias remains bullish above $106,790, with potential toward $112,000. In case of a breakdown, a drop toward $100,000 or even $92,700 is possible, influenced by macro and geopolitical contexts.
BTC/USD Technical Analysis
| Spot Price | $109,600 | Sustained rise with breaking of the previous all-time high (ATH). |
| Latest Weekly Changes | +2.42% | Recovery after a slight consolidation phase. |
| Latest Weekly Volumes | 44B (+41%) | Significant comeback in trading activity. |
| Long-term Trend | Bullish | Strongly upward-oriented trend, confirming a positive underlying momentum. |
| Medium-term Trend | Bullish | Acceleration of bullish momentum in the medium term. |
| Short-term Trend | Bullish | Sustained upward phase, despite a slight recent weakening. |
| Momentum | Recovery | Slight pickup in momentum, with persistent stabilization in the overbought zone according to oscillators. |
The spot price of bitcoin stands around $109,600, within a sustained bullish trend marked by the breaking of the previous all-time high. The weekly variation of +2.42% reflects a recovery after a short consolidation phase, accompanied by a clear resurgence in activity, with weekly volumes reaching $44 billion, up 41%. Technically, the trend remains firmly bullish in the long term (200 SMA), while the pace accelerates in the medium term (50 SMA), confirming positive momentum. In the short term (20 SMA), the upward phase continues, although some signs of fatigue appear. Momentum shows a slight recovery but remains in an overbought zone, suggesting stabilization of momentum rather than a strong acceleration.
Bitcoin (BTC) Technical Levels
| Resistances | $110,500 & $112,000 (ATH) | Critical zones, potential distribution thresholds. |
| Support | $106,790 / $100,700 & $91,713 | Major defense levels, likely accumulation zones. |
| Last daily breakout | $109,346 (previous ATH) | Historic resistance breached, bullish bias confirmed. |
| Monthly pivot point | $88,177 | Reference level for the monthly trend, well below the current price. |
| Upper value area | $111,434 | High-volume zone; upper bound of market balance. |
| Lower value area | $103,500 | High-volume zone; lower bound of market balance. |
In an active consolidation context under resistance, Bitcoin trades near major technical levels, with an still constructive market structure. Resistances at $110,500 and $112,000 (previous ATH) are critical zones that could serve as distribution thresholds if buying power exhausts. On the downside, supports at $106,790, $100,700, and $91,713 represent important defense levels, often linked to accumulation phases. The last daily breakout at $109,346 validates a bullish technical breach of the previous all-time high, reinforcing a positive short-term bias. The monthly pivot point at $88,177 remains well below the current price, serving as a structural reference level. Finally, the volume profile highlights an upper value area at $111,434 and a lower value area at $103,500, delineating a market balance beyond which a more significant imbalance could emerge.
Market Sentiment
| Market Sentiment (Fear & Greed Index) | Greed | Euphoric sentiment confirming the return of risk appetite. |
| BTC Spot ETF Flows (net flows) | Significant inflows | Institutional flows support the current trend. |
The market operates in a greed zone, reflecting euphoric sentiment and a clear resurgence in risk appetite. BTC spot ETFs register significant inflows, indicating clear institutional support for the current bullish momentum.
The current technical analysis was conducted in collaboration with Elyfe, and 0xhugzer, investors and educators in the cryptocurrency market.
Derivatives Analysis (BTC/USDT)
| Open interest | Increasing | Rising speculative positioning, growing interest. |
| CVD | Balanced flows | Relatively stable flows, no marked imbalance. |
| Liquidation | Low, unbiased | Moderate and balanced liquidation activity, no notable directional pressure. |
| Funding rate | Slightly positive | Slight bullish bias, moderate premium for long positions. |
Derivatives indicators offer a balanced reading of the market. Open interest continues to rise, reflecting growing speculative interest in the futures market. CVD flows remain overall balanced, with no net pressure signal between buyers and sellers. Liquidation activity remains moderate and directionally unbiased, while the slightly positive funding rate suggests a minor advantage for long positions.
| Seller liquidation zone | ≈ $111,100 / ≈ $112,600 | Sensitive zones in case of breakout, risk of movement amplification. |
| Buyer liquidation zone | ≈ $106,000 / ≈ $93,000 | Critical downside thresholds, potential flush zones. |
Bitcoin trades between two major technical liquidation zones.
On the upside, the $111,100 to $112,600 zone corresponds to a cluster of seller liquidations; surpassing it could act as a catalyst for bullish acceleration. On the downside, the zone between $106,000 and $93,000 is an area of vulnerability, where increased selling pressure could trigger forced liquidation moves.
Bitcoin (BTC) Price Forecasts
Bullish scenario:
- Conditions: maintaining above $106,790.
- Targets: $110,500 / $112,000 (ATH) / $113,600.
- Potential: approximately +3.5% rise from the current level.
Bearish scenario:
- Conditions: breaking support at $106,790.
- Targets: $106,000 / $100,762 / $92,700.
- Potential: approximately -15% decline from the current level.
Commentary:
The bias remains bullish, but US macroeconomic indicators as well as news related to the global geopolitical context will be decisive to confirm this scenario.
Conclusion
Bitcoin is evolving in a positive dynamic, supported by a robust technical structure and a renewed speculative interest. Despite a consolidation phase below key levels, the bias remains bullish, driven by a balanced market context and an overall optimistic sentiment. Current levels remain sensitive, and the price evolution will largely depend on reactions around technical pressure zones and the global macroeconomic climate. In this context, it will be essential to closely monitor the price reactions at strategic levels to confirm or adjust current forecasts.
Finally, let us remind you that these analyses are based solely on technical criteria, and that cryptocurrency prices can change rapidly due to other more fundamental factors.
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Spécialiste en analyse technique, Elyfe décrypte les tendances graphiques des marchés des cryptomonnaies avec une approche rigoureuse et en constante évolution. À travers ses analyses détaillées, il apporte un regard éclairé sur la dynamique des prix, aidant les investisseurs et passionnés à mieux comprendre et anticiper les mouvements du marché.
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