Bloomberg Puts 85% Odds On ETF Approval In 2025

While US regulators often take cautious positions towards cryptos, a notable change is happening around XRP. In a few weeks, the probability of approval for an ETF backed by the asset has risen to 85%, according to Bloomberg analysts. This development transforms market outlooks and fuels expectations for new historic highs. In this context, investors, technical analysts, and institutional observers are already projecting the scenarios this decision could trigger.

Towards an XRP ETF? The SEC Faces Increasing Pressure

According to Bloomberg analysts, the probability rate that an XRP ETF will be approved in 2025 now reaches 85%. This figure marks a significant increase from the 65% estimate made two months earlier. Eric Balchunas, senior analyst at Bloomberg, states:

The leadership change at the SEC has completely changed the game.

Following this, several renowned asset managers such as Grayscale, 21Shares, WisdomTree, Bitwise, Canary, and Franklin Templeton have submitted their proposals to launch a spot ETF based on XRP.

These initiatives still face administrative delays, but the signals converge towards a possible shift. Here are the key elements supporting this hypothesis:

• 85% probability of approval in 2025 according to Bloomberg, compared to 65% previously;
• Six major issuers have already submitted requests;
• The SEC has postponed its decision on the Franklin Templeton case to June 17;
• On Polymarket, the chances of approval before December 31 have risen from 63% to 80% in one week, reflecting a radical change in market sentiment.

For investors and sector observers, the approval of a spot ETF on XRP would not only be a regulatory milestone. It would mark a symbolic step in the normalization of the asset, long held back by its legal entanglements with the SEC.

Technical Analysis and Traders’ Views: Is XRP on the Path to New Highs?

While eyes are fixed on Washington, technical analysts closely watch the XRP price on the market. Indeed, the crypto is currently trading within a “falling wedge”, a bullish chart pattern. “This pullback is technically perfect,” declares trader Allincrypto on April 30 on the social network X (formerly Twitter).

He sees in this setup a clear signal of bullish recovery. Thus, he even anticipates a target of $19.27, a complete break from current levels near $2.23.

For his part, trader Dark Defender envisions an Elliott wave scenario, as he believes the current correction fits into a bullish continuation dynamic toward new highs. “XRP continues its ascent toward the peak,” he summarizes in a statement published on platform X on April 27.

Moreover, indicators indeed seem to support this hypothesis. The RSI remains above the midline, a sign of favorable momentum. However, a sustained rebound assumes that the support at $2.20 holds and that the resistances between $2.80 and $3.00 are crossed. A break above the upper line of the wedge, currently estimated at $2.40, could open the way to a return to the former highs of $3.74, or even beyond.

If this momentum is confirmed, it could mark a decisive turning point for XRP, which still carries the scars of its long dispute with the SEC. Approval of an ETF, coupled with strong technical signals, could attract significant flows and reposition the asset at the top of the crypto rankings. However, it will all depend on the regulatory timetable, the market’s short-term reaction… and Ripple‘s ability to capitalize on this momentum.

Luc Jose A.

Diplômé de Sciences Po Toulouse et titulaire d’une certification consultant blockchain délivrée par Alyra, j’ai rejoint l’aventure Cointribune en 2019.
Convaincu du potentiel de la blockchain pour transformer de nombreux secteurs de l’économie, j’ai pris l’engagement de sensibiliser et d’informer le grand public sur cet écosystème en constante évolution. Mon objectif est de permettre à chacun de mieux comprendre la blockchain et de saisir les opportunités qu’elle offre. Je m’efforce chaque jour de fournir une analyse objective de l’actualité, de décrypter les tendances du marché, de relayer les dernières innovations technologiques et de mettre en perspective les enjeux économiques et sociétaux de cette révolution en marche.

DISCLAIMER

The views, thoughts, and opinions expressed in this article belong solely to the author, and should not be taken as investment advice. Do your own research before taking any investment decisions.