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The countdown is on. Indeed, bitcoin could reach a new all-time high much sooner than anyone imagines. A recent analysis by Timothy Peterson, a recognized economist in the Bitcoin network, predicts a surge to $135,000 within the next 100 days. The basis for this projection: the drop in the VIX index, a symbol of renewed risk appetite, and an aligned macroeconomic environment. Enough to rekindle the bullish ambitions of a market in search of strong catalysts.
The VIX Index and the Macroeconomic Thesis of BTC at $135,000
In a recent post on X, Bitcoin network economist Timothy Peterson puts forward a bold, yet methodically constructed hypothesis. If the current macroeconomic environment holds, bitcoin could reach $135,000 within 100 days.
This scenario is based on the evolution of the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), a well-known indicator that measures the expected volatility of the U.S. stock market. Peterson states in a post on the social platform X (formerly Twitter) on May 1, 2025:
A VIX below 18 is typically interpreted as a risk-taking signal.
In this context, investors are encouraged to turn to high-yield assets such as cryptocurrencies.
Here are the key facts supporting this forecast:
- The VIX fell from 55 to 25 over 50 trading days, signaling a gradual return of confidence in the financial markets;
- Peterson’s forecast model boasts a historic tracking rate of 95%, enhancing the credibility of his $135,000 prediction;
- According to Peterson, “if the VIX stays low, it will create the necessary conditions for bitcoin to hit a new all-time high within the next 100 days”.
- This model fits within a macroeconomic interpretation where bitcoin, as a risky asset, reacts directly to the global perception of risk.
Such an approach is supported by Jurrien Timmer, head of macroeconomics at Fidelity, who explains in a post on the X platform on May 2 that bitcoin is both “Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde”, acting sometimes as a store of value, sometimes as a speculative asset.
He points out that when the global money supply (M2) increases alongside a bullish stock market, bitcoin tends to rally because it then benefits from a double leverage: monetary and speculative.
A Market Under Pressure: Towards a Massive Short Squeeze?
Alongside these macroeconomic signals, other indicators are emerging from the core of the crypto market itself. CryptoQuant highlights that the capitalization of stablecoins has reached an all-time high of $220 billion.
Such an increase is no coincidence: it reflects a return of available liquidity in the crypto ecosystem, which could fuel new upward movements of bitcoin. Whereas capital outflows characterized previous periods, this trend reversal indicates a fund reinjection often seen as a rally precursor.
However, that’s not all. Funding rates on Bitcoin futures have become strongly negative, signaling an influx of short positions in derivative markets. This means many traders are now betting against bitcoin’s rise.
Now, under these conditions, any sharp increase in BTC could trigger a short squeeze, forcing sellers to urgently buy back their positions to limit their losses. More than $3 billion in short positions are currently exposed to liquidation. If this dynamic kicks in, it could propel the bitcoin price toward the $100,000 zone, in a move amplified by leverage’s mechanical effects.
Beyond the simple technical observation, this imbalance between buyers and sellers shows how sensitive the market remains to sudden catalysts. An external trigger, whether macroeconomic or regulatory, could be enough to reverse positions and cause a snowballing bullish effect. In this context, short-term prospects are marked by high uncertainty, but also by explosive growth potential. The question remains whether the market can sustain the pressure long enough to turn this potential into reality.
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Diplômé de Sciences Po Toulouse et titulaire d’une certification consultant blockchain délivrée par Alyra, j’ai rejoint l’aventure Cointribune en 2019.
Convaincu du potentiel de la blockchain pour transformer de nombreux secteurs de l’économie, j’ai pris l’engagement de sensibiliser et d’informer le grand public sur cet écosystème en constante évolution. Mon objectif est de permettre à chacun de mieux comprendre la blockchain et de saisir les opportunités qu’elle offre. Je m’efforce chaque jour de fournir une analyse objective de l’actualité, de décrypter les tendances du marché, de relayer les dernières innovations technologiques et de mettre en perspective les enjeux économiques et sociétaux de cette révolution en marche.
DISCLAIMER
The views, thoughts, and opinions expressed in this article belong solely to the author, and should not be taken as investment advice. Do your own research before taking any investment decisions.
