Wed 07 May 2025 ▪
5
min read ▪ by
Just hours before a key Federal Reserve decision, traditional markets freeze. Contrary to this, the crypto market comes alive. While Wall Street holds its breath, bitcoin traders are increasing their long positions, betting on a favorable scenario. This agitation goes beyond a simple technical bet. It reflects an aggressive strategy in a context of monetary uncertainty. While the Fed is about to decide on its rates, the crypto market already seems positioned, ready to capitalize on any shift in the economic outlook.
In brief
- On the eve of the Fed’s decision on rates, the Bitcoin market shows unusual bullish activity.
- Technical data confirms the intensity of the movement: a $189 million rise in open interest and +15% volume.
- The funding rate remains neutral but occasionally optimistic, reflecting some market nervousness.
- Jerome Powell’s speech will carry weight: its tone could validate or shatter investors’ bullish hopes.
The bullish bet before the verdict
Since May 6, the bitcoin market has shown clear signs of strategic accumulation ahead of the U.S. Federal Reserve’s decision. Its price has stabilized around $96,800, a level identified as a support zone by several analysts.
Axel Adler Jr., derivatives market specialist, observed on May 6, 2025 on the social network X (formerly Twitter) the emergence of a “bullish cluster of long positions” at this threshold, reminiscent of a similar movement that occurred at the end of April, which then propelled bitcoin up to $97,500.
This concentration of positions reveals a clear willingness among leveraged investors to take positions before the Fed decides on interest rate levels.
Such positioning is accompanied by sharply rising technical indicators, highlighting the intensity of the bullish commitment. Here are some important data:
- Open interest on Bitcoin futures contracts surged by 2,000 BTC, representing an injection of $189 million in just a few hours;
- The aggregated trading volume increased by 15%, a clear sign of sustained buying pressure despite a slight price decline;
- The funding rate remained generally neutral over the past hours but reached a temporary peak of 0.018%, suggesting occasional bursts of optimism among leveraged traders.
Analyst Michaël van de Poppe, founder of VeloMN Capital, also sees this rebound as a positive signal for the coming days. He stated on May 6 on X: “I think we will continue the upward move on bitcoin. The key factor here is to see if gold starts to correct after tomorrow’s FOMC meeting, which would indicate the start of the economic cycle.”
This setup shows that bitcoin bulls are not just anticipating a decision, but are already playing out the macroeconomic scenario ahead.
The Fed, a catalyst for programmed volatility?
Beyond recent technical moves, it is the historical correlation between Fed decisions and bitcoin behavior that catches analysts’ attention. According to Swissblock, a firm specializing in crypto management, bitcoin’s momentum systematically slows in the days preceding a monetary policy decision, then becomes extremely volatile shortly after.
In an analysis published on X, the firm shows that this effect is recurring:
During the last five Fed meetings, the bitcoin price stagnated or dropped slightly before the announcement, then recorded strong volatility in the 48 hours following.
The 25-day Rate of Change (ROC), an indicator followed by Swissblock, is currently in a bullish phase, suggesting possible positive momentum for BTC, provided Jerome Powell’s speech does not cool market enthusiasm.
This type of setup increases the importance of timing for traders. It reflects a certain structural hesitation, typical of periods when macroeconomic algorithmic models adjust according to institutional tone. More than a potential rate change, it is therefore the tone used by Jerome Powell in his press conference that will be scrutinized.
A speech deemed too cautious could stifle the momentum observed on bitcoin, while a message of stability or economic resilience could, on the contrary, serve as a springboard for a new bullish surge.
In this context, the news around the Fed goes beyond its direct impact on crypto prices. It acts as a revealing indicator of the growing dependency of these assets on traditional macroeconomic cycles. Today’s meeting could therefore influence the immediate trajectory of BTC, but also partly redefine how investors perceive the decoupling between crypto and traditional finance. The coming days promise to be decisive, at the crossroads of speculative dynamics and monetary fundamentals.
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Diplômé de Sciences Po Toulouse et titulaire d’une certification consultant blockchain délivrée par Alyra, j’ai rejoint l’aventure Cointribune en 2019.
Convaincu du potentiel de la blockchain pour transformer de nombreux secteurs de l’économie, j’ai pris l’engagement de sensibiliser et d’informer le grand public sur cet écosystème en constante évolution. Mon objectif est de permettre à chacun de mieux comprendre la blockchain et de saisir les opportunités qu’elle offre. Je m’efforce chaque jour de fournir une analyse objective de l’actualité, de décrypter les tendances du marché, de relayer les dernières innovations technologiques et de mettre en perspective les enjeux économiques et sociétaux de cette révolution en marche.
DISCLAIMER
The views, thoughts, and opinions expressed in this article belong solely to the author, and should not be taken as investment advice. Do your own research before taking any investment decisions.
