Myriad Moves: What’s Next for Dogecoin, and Did Anyone Predict an American Pope?

The rise of prediction markets has given crypto participants a wide array of opportunities to test their knowledge of markets, politics, pop culture, and more. 

By using a prediction market like Myriad, users can follow or wager on a real-time, community-sourced indicator of an event’s likelihood, potentially cashing in on their knowledge in the process.

What’s popping on Myriad this week? Here’s a look at some of the most interesting, active, and newsworthy markets right now, including current odds and helpful context.

(Disclaimer: Myriad Markets is a product of Decrypt’s parent company, DASTAN.)

Dogecoin Price Above $0.19 on Saturday, May 10 at 11:59pm UTC

Market Open: May 8 
Market Closes: May 10 
Volume: $4.1K

A flash market on Myriad is asking predictors whether or not they think the price of Dogecoin (DOGE) will be above $0.19 around 8pm ET on Saturday. At the time of writing, predictors give it a 52% chance as crypto prices rise across the board, with Bitcoin reclaiming $100,000 on Thursday for the first time since February.

DOGE, the leading meme coin, has jumped 11.6% to $0.191 during the last 24 hours, moving it above on the market line in the process. Its performance is similar to the rest of the meme coin category, which is up 13% over the same timeframe. 

Will Bitcoin’s strength propel the rest of the risk market? Or is rising Bitcoin dominance, which just hit a four-year high in the last week, set to continue grinding higher as major players and U.S. states seek access to the top crypto asset?

As of Thursday morning, notable macro trader Raoul Pal thinks otherwise. 

“I think BTC dominance topped today,” Pal posted on X (formerly Twitter). “If that plays out, it is the hallmark of the next phase of the Banana Zone,” he added, dropping a term created to represent a sharp, parabolic rise in prices which represents a banana on trading charts. 

Could DOGE be a beneficiary if that’s the case?

The dog-themed token was most recently closed above $0.19 on April 25 and dipped as low as $0.165 earlier this week before its nearly major jump in the last 24 hours. 

What’s next: With FOMC out of the way, no major macro events are scheduled before this market closes. However, President Trump’s social posts are a wild card headed into the weekend. 

Who Will Be the Next Pope? And a White Smoke Market Update

Market Open: April 21
Market Close: May 8 
Volume: $40K

Papal markets took a wild swing early Thursday afternoon when news began circulating that white smoke was billowing from the Sistine Chapel, a sign that a two-thirds majority was reached and a new pope was selected by secret ballot. 

Ballots were cast in secret for the first time on Wednesday, but black smoke was emitted at that time, alerting spectators that no decision was made. Then again in early voting on Thursday, more black smoke. 

But before drawing to a close on Thursday, a decision was reached. 

This also resolved Myriad’s “white smoke in first two days” market, which had fallen to 28% in favor of “yes” a mere hour before the resolution was met. 

Even with white smoke, spectators and predictors were forced to wait prior to the formal announcement. 

Early on Thursday morning, odds in Myriad’s “Next Pope” market were split between the two named candidates, led by Pietro Parolin around 27% and 23% for Luis Antonio Tagle, leaving around 50% for “other.” 

Those odds nearly mirrored Polymarket’s market of the same kind, which had Parolin at 28% odds alongside Luis Antonio Tagle’s 23%. Tagle had fallen below 20% odds on Myriad late on Wednesday, but rebounded to 22% on Thursday morning. 

Yet, after the white smoke, odds shifted dramatically early Thursday afternoon, sending Parolin up to 67% while simultaneously dropping “other” and Tagle to 17% and 15%, respectively. 

But there was still one final turn. It wasn’t Parolin or Tagle that emerged from the central window of St. Peter’s Basilica; instead, American Robert Prevost was elected. 

The move jumped “other” from 16% around 1:00pm ET to 100% resolved by 1:20pm ET. Odds for Prevost were as low as 1.5% as of Thursday morning on Polymarket, offering nearly a 50x return for any predictors on the platform. 

What’s next: Both markets have concluded.

Who Will Become the 2025 NBA Champion?

Market Open: April 14
Closes: June 19 or Earlier
Volume: $13.8K

Myriad’s most volatile prediction market comes from users scrambling to make sense of late-game madness in NBA playoff games that have reshaped the championship picture among remaining teams. 

The Boston Celtics and Oklahoma City Thunder, the two biggest favorites to take the title, each blew notable fourth quarter leads in their first second round playoff games on Monday—and then the Celtics did it again on Wednesday night. 

That has led to the reigning NBA champions plunging in Myriad’s prediction market, from a favored 39% position on Tuesday night all the way to 22.4% at the time of writing. Meanwhile, the Oklahoma City Thunder rebounded in their second game, leveling the series at 1-1 against the Denver Nuggets on Wednesday and reestablishing their claim as the prohibitive favorite on Myriad at 40.6%. 

Those odds differ slightly from sportsbooks fielding wagers on the eventual champion, where OKC sits at +130, or around a 43.48% implied probability according to DraftKings Sportsbook. Boston, on the other hand, is open at +310 on DraftKings, or a 24.39% implied probability, offering about a 2% difference between the current Myriad line. 

Combined, that puts the pair around 68% in implied championship probability, leaving just 32% for other teams—though predictors on Myriad have moved that line to 37% at the time of writing. 

Boston and OKC will each play once more this weekend, with their first road games of the second round potentially having a major impact on the odds once more. 

What’s next: The Celtics play against the New York Knicks on Saturday, while the Thunder will take on the Denver Nuggets on Sunday. 

Edited by Andrew Hayward