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Prediction-making platform Polymarket hit a new milestone last month, with new market creation reaching an all-time high after more than 7,000 new prediction markets were launched.
In Brief
- Polymarket set a record with over 7,000 new markets created in April.
- Active traders dropped from 462,000 in January to 330,000 last month.
- Trading volume fell from $2.6 billion to under $900 million in the same period.
Market Creation Soars While Trader Activity Slows
The jump marked a 20.7% increase compared to March, continuing the platform’s rapid growth that dates back to mid-2024. The U.S. presidential election sparked a wave of interest in prediction markets like Polymarket. As the election drew closer—especially in the weeks leading up to November—more users joined the platform and placed bets, causing a sharp spike in activity and money being traded, eventually leading to a post-election backlash and controversy.
Since then, however, activity in the markets has slowed. The number of active traders fell from 462,000 in January to 330,000 in April. Trading volume followed suit, dropping from $2.6 billion to just under $900 million over the same period.
Sports and Geopolitics Shape Market Trends
The sports market has become one of the more active areas on Polymarket, with users setting up predictions around outcomes like the NBA championship and Champions League results. Geopolitical topics have also contributed to activity, with events such as the U.S.–China trade war and the India–Pakistan conflict drawing some attention. Similarly, economic developments like a possible U.S. recession in 2025 have seen moderate engagement.
Despite the high rate of new market creation, the number of active addresses on Polymarket continues to decline. Some believe that many market creators are doing the work in hopes of a possible airdrop. Still, talk of an airdrop remains speculative, with no official announcement from the platform.
Regulatory Scrutiny and Challenges for Polymarket
Polymarket has also faced regulatory pressure. In late 2024, the New York City home of CEO Shayne Coplan was raided by the FBI, which seized his phone and other electronic devices. The raid was part of a criminal investigation tied to the platform’s operations.
The investigation is partly focused on whether Polymarket violated the terms of a 2022 settlement with the U.S. government. At that time, the CFTC fined the company $1.4 million for running unlicensed betting markets and ordered it to block U.S. users from using the platform.
User Sentiment and Future Prospects for Polymarket
Meanwhile, despite the scrutiny it faced, the platform has continued to generate buzz. Social media commentator Nick Tomaino praised Polymarket as a tool for uncovering truth. He wrote that one of society’s biggest problems is figuring out what’s true, and Polymarket helps with that. He said people are starting to trust markets more than the mainstream media.
He also said Polymarket is the only crypto project with strong market demand beyond token speculation and predicted that prediction market volume will increase 100x from here.
X user Slazac, who had been critical of Polymarket before the 2024 election as a way to cope with uncertainty, admitted he is now impressed by the platform. He called it an amazing tool for essentially predicting the odds of any important event.
Polymarket has partnered with several top companies, including crypto payment provider MoonPay and AI firm Perplexity, aiming to improve prediction accuracy and user engagement through AI-powered features.
It remains unclear what will boost active user participation on the platform. But if the ongoing speculation about a token launch turns out to be true, it could lead to increased trading activity and further growth in Polymarket’s new market creation, as seen during the recent turmoil linked to the ZRO token launch.
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Ifeoluwa specializes in Web3 writing and marketing, with over 5 years of experience creating insightful and strategic content. Beyond this, he trades crypto and is skilled at conducting technical, fundamental, and on-chain analyses.
DISCLAIMER
The views, thoughts, and opinions expressed in this article belong solely to the author, and should not be taken as investment advice. Do your own research before taking any investment decisions.
