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May 2025. Bitcoin sails beyond 103,000 dollars, but this seemingly dizzying figure may be just a warm-up. Because behind the scenes, a structural imbalance is setting in: supply is melting like snow in the sun, while institutional demand is skyrocketing. Some are already talking about a point of no return. Others, like Bitwise or Strategy, are betting on a price explosion — up to 200,000 dollars before the end of next year. Myth or inevitable mechanism? What is certain is that the race is on, and the stakes are colossal.
In brief
- The annual bitcoin supply is limited to 165,000 BTC in 2025.
- Institutional demand already exceeds production.
- The $200,000 threshold becomes a credible short-term target.
The relentless arithmetic of an unbalanced market
At first glance, the market seems stable. But beneath the surface, a silent supply shock is tipping the ecosystem. Matthew Hougan, CIO of Bitwise, does not mince words: “The equation is simple: there isn’t enough bitcoin for everyone.” And he has the numbers to back up his claims.
In 2025, the annual production of BTC is capped at 165,000 units. Yet institutional players — ETFs at the forefront — have already absorbed far more than that amount. In the United States alone, inflows into Bitcoin ETFs exceed 6 billion dollars and continue to grow. Meanwhile, miners’ reserves are declining, and sales are increasingly rare. Liquidity is drying up, slowly but surely.
Result? Bitcoin remains stuck around $100,000, not for lack of interest, but because the market is digesting this new reality. And according to Hougan, once this consolidation is complete, the next target will mechanically be $200,000. Not in ten years. As soon as 2025.
Strategy: the whale that redefines the rules of the game
But that’s not all. Behind this supply shock hides a key player, almost invisible to the general public: Strategy. Under Michael Saylor’s leadership, the company is frenetically accumulating BTC, to the point of currently holding over 568,000 bitcoins. That’s more than 2.7% of the maximum supply, and it’s not over yet.
Over the past six months, Strategy has acquired nearly 380,000 BTC, more than double the network’s annual production. By doing so, it alone is causing an effect equivalent to a halving, creating an artificial shortage that fuels the bullish momentum.
Analysts are certain: if this pace continues, Strategy could soon control the bitcoin lending markets. Its influence could be such that it indirectly sets the cost of capital in bitcoin. A first in modern monetary history. Bitcoin would then no longer be a decentralized currency in the strict sense, but an asset with gravity orbiting around a new center: the first BTC superpower.
The end of cycles for bitcoin? Welcome to the era of institutional hyper-liquidity
Forget the old four-year cycles, marked by dizzying rallies followed by brutal crashes. This model may belong to the past. According to Hougan, the massive presence of institutional players and financial products backed by BTC has transformed the very nature of the market.
The old rules — post-halving bull runs, -80% corrections, stagnation — no longer apply. The arrival of continuous liquidity, long-term retention strategies, and professional management disrupt patterns. Bitcoin is becoming a global reserve asset, no longer just a speculative product.
Add to that an unstable macroeconomic context, negative real interest rates, fiat currencies under pressure, and the picture becomes clear: bitcoin is evolving into a digital monetary standard, rare, solid, incorruptible.
Adam Back even talks about a BTC at 1 million dollars. An extreme prediction? Maybe. But in this new paradigm, fundamentals — not speculation — lead the dance. In this setup, the 200,000 dollars are not a marketing promise — they are the logical extension of a systemic imbalance.
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Fascinated by Bitcoin since 2017, Evariste has continuously researched the subject. While his initial interest was in trading, he now actively seeks to understand all advances centered on cryptocurrencies. As an editor, he strives to consistently deliver high-quality work that reflects the state of the sector as a whole.
DISCLAIMER
The views, thoughts, and opinions expressed in this article belong solely to the author, and should not be taken as investment advice. Do your own research before taking any investment decisions.
